The Shadow of the Third Line: What China’s Cold War Strategy Reveals About Today

Image by THE CHINA NOW

In 2025, China and the U.S. agreed to pause their latest trade war for 90 days. But behind the scenes, China is already building long-term defenses. The country’s next Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is focused on economic security—and part of that means moving industry away from the coast.

That’s where Guizhou comes in.

Why Guizhou Matters Now

Guizhou, a mountainous province far from the sea, was once known for poverty and limited infrastructure. Now, it’s being positioned as a “strategic hinterland”—a safe zone for critical industries in case tensions with the West escalate again.

In 2024, Guizhou’s economy grew by 5.3%, reaching ¥2.27 trillion (about US$317 billion). It’s not huge by Chinese standards, but it’s climbing—and fast.

Old Strategy, New Purpose

This isn't China’s first inland push. In the 1960s and ’70s, the government relocated key factories to western provinces to avoid Soviet threats. That strategy—called the “Third Line”—is being revived with modern goals.

Now, think tanks are calling for a new inland zone covering 10 provinces. The idea is to protect China’s economy by building more in the center of the country, far from foreign risks.

What’s Being Built

Guizhou is already taking action. In 2024, it signed nearly 300 new industrial projects relocated from the east. About 190 have already started construction. The total investment? Over ¥260 billion.

Two of these projects are national-level “industrial backups,” likely focused on aviation parts and tech. The province also hosts suppliers for China’s homegrown aircraft, the C919—an industry now under pressure from U.S. tech bans.

This isn't China’s first inland push. In the 1960s and ’70s, the government relocated key factories to western provinces to avoid Soviet threats.

The Digital Bonus

Guizhou isn’t just building bridges and factories. It’s also becoming a leader in digital infrastructure. The province powers about one-quarter of China’s total data computing capacity and is central to the country’s “Eastern Data, Western Compute” program.

Tech giants like Huawei, Apple, and Tencent have all opened operations in Guizhou. Digital services now make up nearly half of its GDP.

What Could Go Wrong

Some experts warn that shifting industry inland won’t be easy. Coastal areas still have better logistics, bigger markets, and more talent. Moving factories isn’t just about location—it also needs incentives, planning, and long-term funding.

There’s also debt to consider. Guizhou’s massive infrastructure investments, while impressive, have sparked concerns about financial risk, especially from foreign observers.

Looking Ahead

Still, Guizhou represents a bigger idea: that China is preparing not just to survive a trade war, but to rebuild its economic model. By spreading growth away from coastal cities and investing in the country’s interior, Beijing hopes to create a more secure, self-reliant system.

If it works, Guizhou might not just be a backup—it could become the future.